爱玛科技：电动两轮车领军者，稳步增长可期

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Buy" for the company [3]. Core Views - Aima Technology is a leader in the electric two-wheeler industry, with annual production and sales exceeding 10 million units. The company has a robust growth trajectory, with a revenue CAGR of 17.2% from 2015 to 2023 and a net profit CAGR of 22.3% during the same period. In the first half of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 10.59 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, and a net profit of 0.95 billion yuan, up 6.2% year-on-year [9][19]. - The company is expected to benefit from new regulations and subsidies in the short term, while long-term demand in the domestic market remains promising. The upcoming revisions to the national standards and the inclusion of electric two-wheelers in the trade-in subsidy program are anticipated to accelerate the replacement of old vehicles and enhance industry concentration [9][37][44]. - Aima's product matrix is diverse, with a focus on electric bicycles, which accounted for 61% of revenue in 2023. The company is positioned in the mid-to-high-end market, with a competitive pricing strategy compared to peers [22][27]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecast - Revenue is projected to grow from 21.04 billion yuan in 2023 to 29.93 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 12.2% [2]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 1.88 billion yuan in 2023 to 2.82 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 15% [2]. - The company's EBITDA is forecasted to rise from 2.21 billion yuan in 2023 to 3.65 billion yuan in 2026 [2]. Company Overview - Aima Technology was established in 1999 and has been a key player in the electric two-wheeler market since 2004. The company operates seven manufacturing bases, primarily in Tianjin and Jiangsu, and has over 30,000 retail outlets [19][20]. - The company has a concentrated ownership structure, with the chairman holding 68.8% of the shares, indicating strong control and commitment to the company's future [20][21]. Industry Outlook - The electric two-wheeler industry is expected to experience a new wave of growth driven by regulatory changes and subsidies. The introduction of stricter safety standards is likely to phase out smaller manufacturers, leading to increased market concentration [37][44]. - The domestic market shows potential for growth, with increasing demand from both consumer and business sectors. The overseas market, particularly in Southeast Asia, is also seen as a significant growth area, with projections indicating a potential sales volume of 53.9 million units by 2027 [54][60].