国防军工行业周报：关注关联交易预计金额，逢低布局结构性反转

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the defense and military industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The defense and military industry is expected to experience a structural reversal in demand as it approaches the end of the "14th Five-Year Plan" in 2025, with potential growth extending into 2026 [6][21]. - Recent performance indicates a decline in the defense and military index, which fell by 9.94% over the past two weeks, underperforming compared to major indices [16][23]. - The report highlights that the industry may have passed a weak phase, with a demand turning point approaching due to the execution of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [20]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Insights - The defense and military index has underperformed, ranking 12th among 30 primary industry indices, with a decline of 9.94% in the last two weeks [16]. - Key stocks in the sector showed significant price changes, with Construction Industry rising by 26.62% while others like Aviation Power and AVIC High-Tech saw declines [16]. 2. Market Performance - The defense and military index dropped by 9.57% in the week from December 30, 2024, to January 3, 2025, and by 8.88% over the past two weeks [23]. - The index has consistently underperformed against the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index during this period [23]. 3. Major Company Profit Forecasts and Valuations - Companies like Aviation Power and AVIC Shenfei are expected to see varying changes in sales to related parties, with some experiencing significant declines [17]. - The report notes that the overall industry demand is anticipated to grow, particularly in platform products and consumable weapons, driven by the military's centennial goals [21]. 4. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the completion of production tasks by major companies in the industry, indicating a strong operational performance [18]. - The leadership changes within the China Shipbuilding Group and the National Defense Science and Technology Industry Administration are noted, reflecting ongoing reforms in the military sector [19][20]. 5. Recent Key Reports - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring related transactions and suggests strategic positioning in anticipation of the structural demand reversal [6]. 6. Financing Balance - The financing balance for the military sector is reported at 965.99 billion, representing 3.95% of the sector's market value, which is higher than the overall A-share market [30]. 7. New Listings Tracking - Several new companies have entered the military sector since June 2023, with varying market performances and valuations [28].