GREE(000651) 群益证券·2025-01-08 07:45Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of 15% to 35% from the current price [2][6]. Core Insights - The 2025 home appliance subsidy policy is expected to significantly benefit air conditioning sales, with consumers eligible for subsidies of up to 2000 RMB per unit for energy-efficient products [6][7]. - The company has a high revenue proportion from air conditioning, accounting for 74% of its total revenue in 2023, which positions it to benefit more from the new subsidy policy compared to competitors [7]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 55.2 billion RMB for the mid-year, with a dividend payout ratio of approximately 39%, indicating strong shareholder returns [7]. - Profit forecasts for the company show a net profit of 323.4 billion RMB in 2024, growing to 387.0 billion RMB by 2026, with corresponding EPS of 5.8 RMB and 6.9 RMB respectively [7][9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates in the home appliance industry, with a current A-share price of 45.65 RMB and a target price of 55 RMB [1][6]. - Major shareholders include Zhuhai Mingjun Investment Partnership, holding 16.02% of shares [1]. Financial Performance - The company reported a net profit of 29.02 billion RMB in 2023, with projections of 32.34 billion RMB in 2024 and 35.77 billion RMB in 2025 [9]. - The expected dividend per share (DPS) is projected to increase from 2.60 RMB in 2024 to 3.45 RMB in 2026, reflecting a growing dividend yield [9]. Market Position - The company holds a significant market share in the air conditioning segment, which is expected to see increased demand due to favorable government policies [6][7]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in air conditioning ownership in China, which remains below levels seen in Japan, indicating room for market expansion [7].