银行：2024Q4理财季末回表点评-理财回表力度偏弱，关注监管趋严后资产端再配置

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking industry is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a weakening in the strength of wealth management products returning to bank balance sheets at the end of Q4 2024, with a total return scale of approximately 400 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of over 30 billion yuan [5][7] - Factors contributing to this trend include a relaxed liquidity environment and a weakening of scale assessments by banks, leading to reduced motivation for wealth management products to return to deposits [5][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the impact of regulatory changes and the reallocation of assets following the maturity of high-interest deposits [6][7] Summary by Sections Wealth Management Return Dynamics - Wealth management return dynamics typically show a pattern of high returns at the beginning of the quarter, tapering off towards the end, with a total return scale of about 4 trillion yuan from 2021 to 2024 [4] - The return scale is generally highest in Q1 and decreases in subsequent quarters, aligning with the banks' lending and deposit strategies [4] Market Focus on Wealth Management Returns - The market is particularly focused on the end-of-quarter returns as they lead to a rapid decline in wealth management scales, causing banks to reduce their asset holdings, which can disrupt asset prices [5] - In Q4 2024, the return scale was approximately 400 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline, with notable reductions from several banks including Agricultural Bank of China and China Merchants Bank [5][6] Factors Influencing Wealth Management Returns - From the bank's perspective, factors such as a relaxed liquidity environment and a shift in focus from point-in-time scale assessments to average balances have contributed to the reduced motivation for wealth management returns [5][6] - On the liability side, the liquidity of wealth management products has slightly decreased, with cash management products seeing a decline in annualized returns from 2.3% at the beginning of 2024 to around 1.6% by year-end [6][22] - The report notes that the attractiveness of fixed-income wealth management products remains strong, with a recent annualized return of approximately 3.5%, making it challenging for banks to actively guide returns back to deposits [6][25] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that institutions with strong customer bases and diverse sales channels, such as Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, and China Construction Bank, are likely to benefit from the current market dynamics [7]