宏观经济专题：从1.0到2.0：特朗普施政路径及影响的不变与变

Group 1: Trump 1.0 Policy Review - Trump's immigration policy involved 472 administrative reforms, significantly restructuring the U.S. immigration system[3] - The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act signed on December 22, 2017, amounted to $3.2 trillion, marking the largest tax reform since 1986[3] - The U.S.-China trade conflict began with a $34 billion tariff on July 6, 2018, leading to a series of tariff increases until the Phase One trade agreement on January 15, 2020[3] Group 2: Trump 2.0 Policy Implications - Enhanced party control may improve policy execution, but uncertainty remains due to limited majorities in Congress[4] - Large-scale deportation of illegal immigrants could tighten the labor market, initially increasing inflation before demand declines[4] - Tax cuts are likely to continue, but significant new reductions are uncertain, with some provisions expiring in October 2025[4] - Tariffs may be prioritized post-deportation, but their implementation and impact remain uncertain[5] - Regulatory rollbacks are expected to occur quickly, but spending cuts may face significant challenges[5] Group 3: Economic Impact Considerations - Mass deportation could lead to a labor supply reduction, negatively impacting the U.S. economy and potentially decreasing GDP by 2.6% to 12% over the next decade[51] - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the influx of immigrants from 2021 to 2023 could boost U.S. GDP by approximately $8.9 trillion by 2034[51] - The labor market's resilience is partly due to illegal immigrants, who constituted about 4.6% of the workforce in 2022[47]