银行：2025年银行业信贷投放展望

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The main theme of social credit issuance in 2024 is "squeezing out excess" [10] - It is expected that the total new RMB loans for 2024 will be 17.8 trillion, a decrease of 5 trillion compared to 2023, with a growth rate of 7.5%, down 3.1 percentage points from 2023 [10][11] - The credit growth rate is projected to decline further to below 7% in 2025 [67] Summary by Sections 1. 2024 Credit Landscape - The expected new loans for 2024 are 17.8 trillion, down 5 trillion from 2023, with a growth rate of 7.5% [10] - The proportion of corporate loans has increased, while retail loans remain relatively weak [17] - Credit growth has declined across most industries, particularly in manufacturing and government financing [28] 2. Outlook for 2025 - Regulatory assessments of credit scale have weakened, shifting focus to balanced growth [44][45] - Loan interest rate reductions are slower than LPR, significantly compressing the arbitrage space [47] - Manufacturing credit is likely to continue facing "squeezing out" pressures [50] - The impact of debt resolution on government financing loans is expected to be negative [56] - Agricultural commercial banks are projected to have relatively weak loan issuance [64] - The expected quarterly credit issuance rhythm for 2025 is 5:2:2:1, with an annual growth rate of 6.5%-7% [67] 3. Industry-Specific Insights - Manufacturing loans have seen a significant contraction, with medium to long-term loan growth at 14.8%, down nearly 17 percentage points from the beginning of the year [29] - Government financing loans are declining due to debt resolution impacts, with a projected net growth rate of 8.75% for 2025, down 5.22 percentage points from 2024 [62][63] - Real estate loans have shown marginal improvement due to supportive measures, with new real estate development loans reaching 910 billion, an increase of 430 billion year-on-year [35] - Regional credit resource distribution has improved, with developed regions experiencing a decline in credit growth rates [41][42]