消费刺激新政：扩容、增量、持续

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes that the 2025 consumption stimulus policy is a key strategy to boost domestic demand, with a focus on expanding the scope and intensity of subsidies for various consumer goods, including automobiles, home appliances, and digital products [4][5] - The report outlines specific changes in the subsidy policy, such as the expansion of the vehicle scrappage subsidy and the inclusion of new categories like mobile phones and digital products, indicating a commitment to stimulate consumption amid external uncertainties [4][5] - The expected total scale of central government subsidies for 2025 is projected to be around 540 billion, with a monthly subsidy strength of approximately 450 billion, suggesting a sustained effort to maintain consumer demand throughout the year [4][5] Group 2 - The report estimates that the consumption subsidy in 2025 could stimulate an additional 900 billion in consumer spending, contributing approximately 1.0 percentage point to the year-on-year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods [4][5] - Data from the Ministry of Commerce indicates that the consumption subsidy has already shown significant effects, with the scrappage and replacement subsidies for automobiles and home appliances leading to increased sales and consumer demand [4][5] - The report maintains its forecast for the year-on-year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods at 4.6% for 2025, reflecting an increase of 1.1 percentage points compared to 2024, driven by the anticipated impact of the consumption stimulus [4][5]