aiyingshi(603214) Tianfeng Securities·2025-01-08 14:04Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage with a target price of 35.15 CNY per share, corresponding to a PE ratio of 25 for 2024, 21 for 2025, and 20 for 2026 [9][4]. Core Views - The company is leveraging a "channel + brand + multi-industry" strategy, with a significant partnership with Bandai expected to unlock new growth potential [1][3]. - The optimization of the mother-baby store model and the shift in fertility policies are anticipated to stimulate market demand, positioning the company for a potential upward trend in its core business [2][40]. - The collaboration with Bandai to establish a Gundam base in China is seen as a strategic move into the IP retail sector, which could create a second growth curve for the company [3][46]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has been developing since its establishment in 1997, focusing on a multi-faceted strategy that includes digital management and international partnerships, notably with Tencent and Bandai [1][14]. - The company reported a revenue of 2.47 billion CNY in Q1-Q3 2024, a 2% year-on-year increase, despite facing pressure on gross margins [1][22]. Store Optimization and Market Demand - Following the acquisition of Beibei Xiong, the company has optimized its store model, resulting in a significant increase in store efficiency, with a revenue per square meter of 10,168 CNY/year in 2023 [2][35]. - The company is expected to benefit from favorable demographic trends and government policies aimed at increasing birth rates, which will enhance consumer spending in the mother-baby sector [40][43]. IP Retail Expansion - The partnership with Bandai has led to the opening of the first Gundam base in Suzhou, marking the company's entry into the lucrative IP retail market [3][46]. - Gundam, a well-established IP with over 40 years of history, is expected to drive significant consumer interest and sales growth in China, which is a key market for Bandai [3][47]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 121 million CNY, 139 million CNY, and 150 million CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a projected revenue growth rate of 6.57% in 2024 [4][5]. - The financial metrics indicate a relatively low valuation compared to peers, suggesting potential for upward adjustment as store optimization effects materialize [4][5].