东吴证券：晨会纪要-20250109

Macro Strategy - The report discusses the two main paths for implementing tariffs under the Trump administration: direct presidential orders and congressional approval. Direct orders are easier to implement and include invoking specific trade clauses (201, 232, 301, 122, and 338) and using the IEEPA mechanism. Congressional approval is more complex and involves canceling the Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) status [1][11][12] - The preferred tariff policy under Trump 2.0 is likely to favor clauses 201, 232, and 301, followed by the IEEPA mechanism, with the least likelihood of canceling PNTR status due to the complexity of legislative processes [1][11][12] Fixed Income - The report anticipates that the Silver Bond (银邦转债) will be priced between 103.02 and 114.56 yuan on its first trading day, with a subscription rate of 0.0034%. The bond has a total issuance scale of 785 million yuan, aimed at funding a project for producing low-carbon aluminum thermal transmission materials [2][12] - The bond's credit rating is AA-/AA-, with a maturity of 6 years and a face value of 100 yuan. The expected yield to maturity (YTM) is 2.81% [2][12] Industry Analysis GAC Group (广汽集团) - The report revises the 2024 net profit forecast down by 1.4 billion yuan to 1.4 billion yuan due to asset impairments, while increasing the 2025 and 2026 forecasts to 4.1 billion and 5.4 billion yuan respectively. The company aims for its self-owned brand to account for 60% of total sales by 2027 [6][15] - GAC's strategy includes a focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, particularly through partnerships with Huawei for new energy vehicles [6][15] Daotong Technology (道通科技) - The company forecasts a revenue of 3.8 to 4.0 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.9% to 23.0%. The net profit is expected to be between 520 to 580 million yuan, indicating a growth of 41.8% to 58.1% [7][17] - The company is expanding into robotics and AI, with a focus on energy, security, and transportation sectors, and anticipates significant growth in its digital energy business [7][17] Tianci Materials (天赐材料) - The report lowers the net profit forecast for 2024 to between 480 million and 520 million yuan, a decrease of 72.5% to 76.7%. The company expects a significant increase in electrolyte shipments in 2025 [8][19] - The company is also pursuing partnerships for production expansion in the U.S., indicating a strategic move to enhance its market presence [8][19] Yutong Bus (宇通客车) - Yutong Bus reported a significant increase in sales and production for December 2024, with a year-on-year sales growth of 28.48% for the entire year. The company is benefiting from policies promoting vehicle upgrades and increased demand [9][20] - The report highlights the company's strong market position and growth potential in the bus manufacturing sector [9][20]