电子行业点评：手机等补贴政策出炉，看好AI背景下换机周期

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [10] Core Viewpoints - The introduction of subsidy policies for mobile devices is expected to stimulate demand for new purchases, particularly in the context of an AI-driven upgrade cycle [3][9] - The global AI smartphone penetration rate is anticipated to rise significantly, with AI smartphone shipments projected to reach 234 million units in 2024 and 827 million units by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 100.7% from 2023 to 2027 [6][7] - In China, AI smartphone shipments are expected to reach 40 million units in 2024 and grow to 150 million units by 2027, accounting for 51.9% of the overall smartphone market [7] Summary by Sections Subsidy Policies - On January 8, 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance announced a new subsidy policy for digital products, including mobile phones, with a subsidy of 15% of the product price, capped at 500 yuan per item [3][6] - Regional subsidies in provinces like Jiangsu and Guizhou offer similar incentives, with varying rates and caps, aimed at reducing consumer costs and stimulating sales [3][9] AI Smartphone Market - The report highlights the shift of AI processing focus towards mobile devices, with flagship smartphones already capable of supporting large language models (LLMs) [6] - The rapid development of generative AI technology and increasing computational demands are driving the need for collaboration between cloud and terminal devices [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies within the AI smartphone supply chain, including Luxshare Precision, GoerTek, Lens Technology, and others, as they are well-positioned to benefit from the rising AI smartphone penetration [9]