国防军工2025年度策略：业绩筑底景气回升，商业航天加速突破

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform-A" for the defense and military industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in 2025 [1]. Core Insights - The defense and military sector is expected to enter a new growth cycle as the demand recovers, with a clear bottoming out of performance in 2024. The industry is projected to rebound significantly in 2025, driven by the release of delayed orders and the upcoming 2027 centennial military goals [1][15][21]. - The report highlights the acceleration of commercial aerospace developments, particularly in satellite internet construction and the advancement of large reusable liquid rockets, which are crucial for future launch markets [2][10]. - Global geopolitical tensions are increasing military trade demand, with military expenditures expected to rise, providing growth opportunities for China's defense industry both domestically and internationally [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. New Growth Cycle in Defense Industry - The defense sector is anticipated to recover from a challenging 2024, with performance metrics showing a significant rebound starting in 2025. The industry is expected to benefit from the release of delayed orders and a favorable market environment [15][21]. 2. Acceleration of Satellite Internet and Rocket Development - The construction of giant satellite internet constellations is identified as a major future demand in the aerospace launch market. The report emphasizes the need for increased rocket capacity to meet the demands of these satellite deployments [2][10]. 3. Increased Military Trade Demand - The report notes that global geopolitical instability is driving a surge in military trade demand, with military spending projected to grow. This trend is expected to provide substantial growth opportunities for China's defense industry, allowing it to leverage both domestic and international markets [3][4]. 4. Development of Large Aircraft - The report discusses the rapid development of large aircraft, with China poised to become the largest single aviation market globally. The C919 aircraft is highlighted as a potential disruptor in the market dominated by Boeing and Airbus [4][10]. 5. Recommended Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on the missile weapon industry chain, new aviation equipment industry chain, and unmanned equipment industry chain. Key companies highlighted include Beifang Navigation, Aerospace Electric, AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, AVIC High-Tech, and Guangqi Technology [5][10].