宏观点评：“两新”政策加力扩围驱动市场回暖

Market Performance - A-share trading volume increased to 12,576.29 billion CNY, up 1,684.81 billion CNY from the previous trading day[11] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.02% to 3,230.17 points, down 3.63% from the end of 2024[11] - The ChiNext Index fell 0.98% to 2,008.44 points, down 6.22% from the end of 2024[11] - The CSI 300 Index decreased by 0.18% to 3,789.22 points, down 3.70% from the end of 2024[11] Sector Performance - Home appliances sector increased by 2.23%, while the machinery equipment sector rose by 0.76%[11] - The banking sector showed strength due to its low valuation and high dividend advantages[12] - The steel sector declined by 1.20%, and the non-ferrous metals sector fell by 1.33%[11] Policy Impact - The State Council emphasized expanding the categories for the "old-for-new" appliance policy, which includes more electronic information and agricultural sectors[12] - The central government has allocated 810 billion CNY for the "old-for-new" policy in 2025, following the near exhaustion of 1,500 billion CNY allocated for 2024[10] - The implementation of the "Two New" policy is expected to drive market recovery and support long-term upward potential[12] Economic Indicators - The People's Bank of China conducted a 11 billion CNY reverse repurchase operation at a rate of 1.50% to maintain liquidity[9] - The RMB/USD exchange rate was reported at 7.1887, depreciating by 8 basis points[9] - The weighted average interest rate for equipment update loans was 3%, with an effective financing cost of 1.5% after fiscal subsidies[9] Market Outlook - Short-term market volatility is expected to stabilize as negative impacts from currency depreciation and insufficient monetary easing diminish[12] - The market may continue to exhibit a fluctuating pattern in the absence of new incremental funds, with a rotation between high-dividend large-cap stocks and small-cap stocks[12] - Long-term policy direction shows clear momentum, with market sentiment expected to find support at the bottom[12]