有色金属脉动跟踪：降息预期降温，美元走强压制金属价格

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" for non-ferrous metals [3] Core Views - The report indicates that the expectation of interest rate cuts has cooled, leading to a strong US dollar which suppresses metal prices [1] - Precious metals are expected to experience short-term fluctuations due to geopolitical conflicts and interest rate expectations, while long-term investment value remains [11] - Industrial metals are anticipated to see price support from demand in sectors like renewable energy and AI, despite current fluctuations [12] - Strategic minor metals are facing mixed market conditions, with some prices stabilizing while others are under pressure due to supply and demand dynamics [21][24] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term due to cooling interest rate expectations and geopolitical factors [11] - The market anticipates that Trump's policies may have both positive and negative impacts on gold prices in the medium term [11] Industrial Metals - Copper is waiting for a demand turning point, with macroeconomic policies indicating a more proactive fiscal stance [12] - Aluminum prices are expected to rise long-term due to supply constraints and increasing production costs [13] - Lead and zinc prices are experiencing fluctuations, with ongoing supply-demand imbalances [14] - Tin prices are under pressure due to weak demand, while nickel prices are stabilizing near cost support levels [19] Strategic Minor Metals - Tungsten prices are stable but face weak demand, leading to negotiations based on need [21] - Antimony prices are supported in the short term due to production cuts from major domestic manufacturers [24] - Molybdenum prices are stable with increasing demand from the steel sector [25] - The rare earth industry is expected to see a value return due to multiple supportive factors [26] Macro Trends and Industry Dynamics - Global macro trends show mixed signals, with manufacturing PMIs indicating varying levels of economic activity across regions [32] - Domestic trends in China show a rebound in manufacturing PMI, but real estate remains weak [34] - Recent agreements in the tin industry aim to enhance resource development and utilization [36]