有色金属脉动跟踪：复盘全球央行购金，趋势仍将持续

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" as of January 8, 2025 [4] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing trend of central banks increasing gold reserves, with China's official gold reserves reaching 72.96 million ounces by the end of November 2024, an increase of 160,000 ounces (approximately 4.54 tons) from October [1][24] - The report anticipates that the demand for gold will rise due to a moderately loose monetary policy in China aimed at supporting stable economic growth in 2025 [1][24] - Emerging market central banks are diversifying their foreign exchange reserves, with gold being viewed as a safe-haven asset amid geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties [2][25] Summary by Sections Section 1: Global Central Bank Gold Purchases - Global central banks have been net buyers of gold for 15 consecutive years, with significant purchases occurring during periods of economic instability [15] - In 2024, Turkey, Poland, India, and China were major contributors to global central bank gold purchases, with Turkey increasing its reserves by 71.8 tons [19][25] Section 2: Updates on Major Metal Varieties - Copper: Anticipation of a demand turning point, with current pressures from weak terminal demand and inventory increases [31] - Aluminum: Long-term price center expected to rise above 20,000 yuan/ton due to high production costs and demand constraints [32] - Lead and Zinc: Ongoing supply-demand imbalances with low processing fees and price fluctuations [34] - Tin: Prices are recovering amid inventory reductions, but supply remains tight [35] - Nickel: Prices are fluctuating near cost support levels due to stable supply and weak demand [36] - Tungsten: Market prices are stable, with negotiations driven by demand [37] - Antimony: Prices are supported by production cuts from major domestic producers [40] - Molybdenum: Prices remain stable with steady demand from the steel sector [41] - Rare Earths: The industry outlook is positive due to multiple factors including supply control and policy support [42][45] - Titanium: Prices are stable with slight changes in demand dynamics [46] Section 3: Macroeconomic Trends and Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions and economic policies on market expectations, with China's manufacturing PMI indicating slight expansion [39]