汽车行业：如何看待乘用车以旧换新政策延续下的销量弹性

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report discusses the continuation of the vehicle replacement policy and its impact on sales elasticity, indicating that the policy is expected to stimulate sales by approximately 1.9 million units in 2024, with a manageable demand pull-forward effect [6][16] - The report anticipates a slight positive growth in passenger vehicle terminal sales for 2025, driven by the extended duration of the replacement policy and a significant number of vehicles eligible for scrappage subsidies [22][29] Summary by Sections 1. Event - The scope of support for vehicle scrappage and replacement has been expanded, with the subsidy per vehicle remaining unchanged from 2024. The central government has allocated 81 billion CNY for the 2025 consumption upgrade policy [15][17] 2. Review - The 2024 vehicle replacement policy is projected to stimulate an additional 1.9 million units in sales, with the effective stimulation period lasting about four months. The impact of demand pull-forward is expected to be limited compared to previous tax incentive policies [16][20] 3. Outlook - For 2025, the report forecasts a slight positive growth in terminal sales of passenger vehicles, supported by a large number of vehicles eligible for scrappage subsidies and a longer effective period for the replacement policy [22][23] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report provides a "shelf-style" investment suggestion, highlighting key companies in the passenger vehicle chain, including BYD, Li Auto, and Great Wall Motors, among others. It also identifies potential turning point companies such as SAIC Motor [29]