有色钢铁行业周观点（2025年第1周）：国内政策空窗期，关注黄金和金属新材料板块投资机会

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industries [4]. Core Viewpoints - The current period is characterized as a policy observation phase, with expectations of continued monetary easing in China. The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in gold and metal new materials due to the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and anticipated global central bank gold purchases in 2025 [2][13]. - Steel consumption for construction has entered a seasonal decline, with significant decreases in rebar consumption and prices. The report notes a 10.16% week-on-week decline in rebar consumption, totaling 1.97 million tons, and a 12.96% year-on-year decrease [14][19]. - Industrial metals are facing price suppression due to a strong dollar and high interest rates, with LME copper and aluminum prices showing slight declines of 1.61% and 1.51% respectively [16][37]. - Precious metals are experiencing volatility, with gold prices slightly increasing by 0.61% to $2652.7 per ounce, amid expectations of continued central bank purchases and geopolitical tensions [17][54]. Summary by Sections Macro Overview - The report emphasizes the domestic policy window and the potential for continued monetary easing, suggesting a focus on gold and metal new materials investments [6][13]. Steel Industry - Supply and Demand: Rebar consumption has decreased significantly, with a reported consumption of 1.97 million tons, reflecting a 10.16% decline week-on-week and a 12.96% decline year-on-year [14][19]. - Inventory: Total steel inventory has seen a slight week-on-week increase but a significant year-on-year decrease, with social inventory at 767,000 tons [26]. - Profitability: There is a notable differentiation in profitability between long and short process rebar production, with long process margins slightly improving while short process margins are declining [29][34]. - Price Trends: The overall steel price index has decreased by 0.53%, with specific declines in hot-rolled and medium-thick plate prices [37][38]. New Energy Metals - Supply: Lithium carbonate production in November 2024 reached 54,180 tons, a year-on-year increase of 41.02%, while nickel pig iron production saw a significant year-on-year decline of 20.05% [15][45]. - Demand: The production and sales of new energy vehicles in China have surged, with November 2024 figures showing a 47.35% year-on-year increase in production [49]. - Price Trends: Lithium prices are showing differentiation, with battery-grade lithium carbonate priced at 75,000 yuan per ton, while nickel and cobalt prices are relatively stable [54][55]. Industrial Metals - Supply and Demand: The report notes a decrease in global refined copper production and a recovery in scrap copper imports, indicating a mixed supply scenario [16][18]. - Price Trends: Industrial metal prices are under pressure, with LME copper and aluminum prices showing slight declines [16][37]. Precious Metals - Market Dynamics: Gold prices are expected to continue rising due to geopolitical uncertainties and central bank purchasing trends, despite a slight decrease in non-commercial net long positions [17][54].