汽车行业事件点评：以旧换新国补出台 补贴范围扩大

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the automotive industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The new policy on vehicle trade-in subsidies, effective from January 8, 2025, expands the scope of eligible vehicles to include those meeting the National IV emission standards, which is expected to stimulate demand in the automotive market [2][3] - The subsidy for purchasing new energy vehicles remains at 20,000 yuan per vehicle, while the subsidy for fuel vehicles with an engine size of 2.0 liters or less is set at 15,000 yuan [3] - The report anticipates a significant demand boost in 2024 due to the new trade-in policy, with a notable increase in vehicle insurance sales and a strong performance in new energy vehicle sales [3] Summary by Sections Passenger Vehicles - The subsidy policy is expected to enhance market demand, with a reported 13.6 million passenger vehicles insured from January to November 2024, reflecting an 8.9% year-on-year increase [3] - New energy vehicle insurance sales reached 9.53 million units during the same period, showing a substantial year-on-year growth of 49.3% [3] Heavy Trucks - The trade-in subsidy for heavy trucks has been expanded to include National IV and below emission standard vehicles, with an average subsidy of 80,000 yuan for scrapping and purchasing eligible trucks [5] - The report estimates that a 10% replacement demand from the old truck fleet could lead to an additional 86,000 new heavy trucks, significantly boosting domestic demand [5] Investment Recommendations - For passenger vehicles, the report recommends focusing on high-quality domestic brands that are accelerating in smart technology and globalization, including BYD, Geely, Changan, SAIC, Xpeng, and Great Wall [6] - In the heavy truck sector, companies like China National Heavy Duty Truck and Weichai Power are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of the policy-driven demand [6] - In the auto parts sector, recommendations include companies involved in the new energy vehicle supply chain and smart driving technologies [6]