ANTA SPORTS(HK:02020) Guoxin Securities·2025-01-09 03:42Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][4][10] Core Views - In Q4 2024, Anta's main brand recorded high single-digit growth, while FILA achieved high single-digit growth, and other brands saw a growth of 50-55%. For the entire year of 2024, Anta's main brand also recorded high single-digit growth, FILA achieved mid-single-digit growth, and other brands grew by 40-45% [2][4][5] - The new retail model and multi-brand matrix are expected to drive the brand to maintain industry-leading growth rates. Despite a high base in Q4, the group's various brands still maintained sequential growth, outperforming peers, with stable discount rates and healthy inventory levels [4][8][10] Summary by Sections Q4 and Full Year Performance - Q4 2024 saw a sequential increase in revenue growth despite a high base, with FILA performing better than expected and outdoor brands maintaining rapid growth. Inventory levels across brands are healthy, and discount rates remain stable [3][5] - Anta's Q4 revenue growth was high single-digit, with nearly 10% growth for the full year. The inventory-to-sales ratio remained around 5, indicating a healthy level, and online retail discounts narrowed [5][9] - FILA's Q4 revenue growth was high single-digit, with mid-single-digit growth for the full year, maintaining a healthy inventory-to-sales ratio and stable discount levels [5][6] Brand Performance - Other brands recorded a revenue growth of 50-55% in Q4, with annual growth of 40-45%, particularly notable for the high growth rates of Descente (45-50%) and Kolon (60-65%) [6][10] - The "Super Anta" new retail format, launched in mid-2024, is expected to further drive growth in 2025, with plans to open 160 stores, significantly increasing store efficiency [7][8] Financial Forecasts - The profit forecast for Anta Sports estimates net profits of 135 billion, 134 billion, and 147 billion yuan for 2024-2026, respectively. Adjusted net profits, excluding one-time gains from Amer Sports' listing, are expected to be approximately 120 billion, 134 billion, and 147 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 16.8%, 11.8%, and 9.9% [4][10][11] - The reasonable valuation range is maintained at 103-112 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 20-22x for 2025 [4][10]