银行业流动性观察第105期：12月金融数据前瞻及1月流动性展望

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark index by over 15% in the next 6-12 months [1][27]. Core Insights - Economic activity is expected to slow seasonally by the end of 2024, with financing demand from the real economy still needing recovery. The issuance of new local government special bonds to replace hidden debts will impact existing loans, leading to a likely continued pressure on credit growth in December [3][4]. - The central economic work conference emphasized the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, suggesting an increase in counter-cyclical adjustments [3]. - January 2025 is anticipated to see a strong start in loan issuance as banks prepare for the "opening red" phase, although short-term funding conditions have not significantly eased [3][4]. Summary by Sections Loan Growth Expectations - December's loan growth is expected to continue to show a year-on-year decrease, with new loans likely below 1 trillion yuan and a growth rate around 7.5%, down 0.2 percentage points from November [4][22]. - The issuance of local government bonds to replace existing debts and increased efforts to write off non-performing loans will negatively affect the scale of existing loans [4]. Financing Demand and Trends - The demand for financing in the real economy remains weak, with corporate loan growth expected to continue declining year-on-year in December. High-frequency data indicates a decrease in operational rates in key industries such as petroleum and construction [5][6]. - Retail loan growth is expected to remain relatively stable, with mortgage issuance showing signs of improvement due to a rebound in new and second-hand home sales [6][8]. Social Financing and Credit Data - December's new social financing is projected to be around 2.1 trillion yuan, maintaining a growth rate of approximately 7.8%. The main driver of this growth will be government bond issuance [9][22]. - The report anticipates that the total new RMB loans for 2024 will be around 18 trillion yuan, a decrease of 4.8 trillion yuan year-on-year, with a year-end growth rate of 7.5% [9][22]. Monetary and Liquidity Conditions - The report notes that M1 growth may continue to rise, driven by increased housing sales and government spending, while M2 growth is expected to remain stable [11][12]. - January 2025 is expected to see increased liquidity disturbances due to seasonal factors, including tax payments and the overlap with the Spring Festival, which may affect loan issuance [15][16].