商贸零售行业深度报告：市内免税店落地展望：城市梳理及规模测算

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail industry [1] Core Insights - The new policy for city duty-free shops, effective from October 1, 2024, allows domestic travelers to shop at these stores within 60 days before departure, enhancing shopping scenarios and increasing consumer limits [4][10] - The target customer base for city duty-free shops is nearly 90 million, with a significant presence in 22 cities, capturing 88% of the passenger flow [4][19] - The long-term market size for city duty-free shops is projected to reach 371 billion yuan, with sensitivity analysis suggesting a range of 312 to 467 billion yuan [4][31] Summary by Sections 1. City Duty-Free Shop Policy Overview - The new policy expands shopping scenarios and increases the number of duty-free stores in cities like Guangzhou, Chengdu, and Shenzhen [4][10] - The policy allows for no shopping limits at city duty-free shops, although travelers must still adhere to an 8,000 yuan limit for items brought into the country [11][12] 2. Long-Term Market Size Outlook for City Duty-Free Shops 2.1. City Duty-Free Shops Launch Progress - Six city duty-free shops operated by China Duty Free Group are set to open soon, with additional stores in eight cities already in the bidding process [4][15] 2.2. Target Customer Base - The potential customer base includes approximately 90 million outbound travelers, with significant airport traffic contributing to this figure [4][19] 2.3. Benefiting Local Listed Companies - Local retail, commercial real estate, and airport operation companies are expected to benefit from the new city duty-free shop projects, including companies like Wushang Group and Shenzhen Holdings [4][28] 2.4. Long-Term Market Size Estimation - The estimated market size for city duty-free shops is projected at 36 billion yuan in the short term, 170 billion yuan in the medium term, and 371 billion yuan in the long term [4][31] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on operators like China Duty Free Group and Wangfujing, as well as local retail and commercial real estate companies [4][39]