传媒互联网行业月报：OpenAI发布o3模型，CES 2025开幕

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the media and internet industry [7] Core Views - The media industry (Shenwan) fell by 5.84% in December 2024, ranking 27th among sub-industries, while the CSI 300 rose by 0.47% and the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.76% [1] - The AI sector is a key investment focus, with significant model iterations and application-side prosperity expected to drive valuation and performance improvements in the media sector [5] - The gaming market in China reached a total size of 325.78 billion yuan in 2024, with mobile games accounting for 238.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.53% and 5.01% respectively [3] - The domestic box office in 2024 was 42.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 22.61%, with the top five films contributing significantly to the box office, four of which were released during the Spring Festival period [4] Market Performance - In December 2024, the media industry (Shenwan) fell by 5.84%, with the gaming II sector experiencing the largest decline of 7.18%, while the publishing sector had the smallest decline of 2.99% [18] - The AI index (884201.WI) fell by 1.66% in December 2024, underperforming the CSI 300 by 2.13 percentage points, but it has outperformed the CSI 300 by 3.80 percentage points year-to-date [25] AI Sector Developments - OpenAI launched the o3 model, completing its 12-day product release event, which included the full version of o1 and the Sora model [2] - Other significant AI developments include Meta's Llama 3.3, Google's Imagen 3 and Veo 2 models, and domestic models like Tencent's Hunyuan and Kimi's k1 model [2][30][31] - CES 2025 saw NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang announce the RTX 5090 D GPU and the Cosmos world foundational model platform [2] Gaming Sector - In 2024, 1,306 domestic game licenses and 110 imported game licenses were issued, with 122 domestic and 13 imported licenses issued in December alone [77] - Key game companies like Tencent, NetEase, and Perfect World have new games scheduled for release in early 2025, which are expected to boost the gaming market [3][72] - The mobile game market saw significant growth, with games like "Honor of Kings" and "PUBG Mobile" maintaining strong performance [44][48] Film Sector - The top five films in 2024 accounted for a significant portion of the box office, with "YOLO" leading at 3.42 billion yuan, followed by "Pegasus 2" and "Article 20" [4][99] - The Spring Festival 2025 lineup includes highly anticipated films like "Detective Chinatown 1900" and "The Legend of the Condor Heroes: The Great Hero," which are expected to drive box office performance [100][101] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on AI-driven investments, particularly in gaming companies with strong product pipelines like恺英网络, 神州泰岳, and 完美世界 [5] - The publishing sector is highlighted for its stable cash flow and high dividends, with companies like 南方传媒 and 皖新传媒 recommended for attention [5] - In the film and IP sector, companies like 芒果超媒, 光线传媒, and 上海电影 are recommended due to their potential for AI-driven IP revaluation [5]