CPI、PPI点评（2024.12）：核心CPI连续修复，消费补贴持续拉动耐用品需求

CPI and PPI Analysis - In December, the overall CPI decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.1%, significantly lower than previous expectations, primarily due to low food prices[1] - Core CPI, however, rose for the third consecutive month, increasing by 0.1 percentage points to 0.4%, the highest level since Q2[1] - The PPI's year-on-year decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points to -2.3%, but it remains in a deep decline zone, influenced by stable international oil prices[1] Food Prices Impact - December's food CPI fell by 0.6% month-on-month, marking a significant drop of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year to -0.5%[1] - Contributing factors include favorable weather conditions and abundant pork supply, leading to a 2.4% and 1.0% decrease in fresh vegetable and fruit prices, respectively[1] Core CPI Drivers - Core CPI's increase is supported by stable service consumption growth and substantial fiscal subsidies for consumer goods[1] - Service prices rose by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 0.5%, with air ticket prices surging by 4.6% month-on-month due to increased travel demand[1] Fiscal Policy and Consumer Subsidies - The 2025 fiscal subsidy plan aims to continue the monthly average subsidy intensity from September 2024, with an estimated additional 500 billion CNY allocated for consumer subsidies[1] - The expected stimulus effect of the 2024 consumer subsidies is approximately 1:1.6, indicating a significant impact on durable goods consumption[1] Investment and PPI Outlook - The PPI's recovery is primarily driven by the stabilization of oil prices, while coal and metallurgy prices continue to decline, indicating ongoing pressure on domestic investment demand[1] - The report maintains a forecast of 0.6% year-on-year average core CPI for 2025, with a steady recovery in PPI expected[1]