美国经济分析：回顾2024年经济数据的意外表现、我们的预测准确性和市场反应（摘要）

Core Insights - The report highlights that the US economy experienced unexpected growth in 2024, with Q4 GDP increasing approximately 2.5%, surpassing both the initial forecast of 2% and the consensus estimate of 0.8% [2][4] - Core PCE inflation for Q4 2024 was reported at around 2.8%, which was higher than the forecasted 2.2% and the market expectation of 2.4% [2][11] - The report indicates a strong market reaction to economic data surprises, particularly inflation data, with stock market sensitivity being 2.2 times the normal level and bond market sensitivity at 5.5 times the normal level [2][35] Economic Performance - The report notes that the largest upward revision to growth forecasts was attributed to a surge in immigration, which positively impacted labor force growth and potential GDP [2][4] - The report mentions that the forecasting accuracy for key economic indicators was improved, with a hit rate of 67% for 13 major indicators, slightly above the historical average of 63% [2][16] - Specific indicators such as the unemployment rate and core PCE showed particularly high forecasting accuracy, with hit rates of 100% and 91% respectively [16][22] Market Reactions - The report discusses the heightened sensitivity of the Treasury market to growth surprises, which was about 50% above normal levels in 2024, reflecting concerns about potential recessions and the Fed's data-dependent policy [31][35] - In the equity market, there was a consistent positive response to growth surprises in 2024, indicating a stronger conviction that inflation would remain controlled despite robust growth [33][39] - The report anticipates that as economic conditions normalize, the sensitivity to monthly growth and inflation data may decrease in 2025 [39] Forecasts - The report provides forecasts for real GDP growth, projecting a gradual decline from 2.5% in Q4 2024 to 2.1% by Q2 2025, with consumer expenditures also expected to slow down [41][42] - Inflation forecasts indicate a decrease in both CPI and core CPI, with core PCE expected to stabilize around 2.4% by the end of 2025 [41][42] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise slightly to 4.2% by Q3 2025, reflecting ongoing adjustments in the labor market [41][42]