年度展望 | 2025年海外宏观经济与利率展望——特朗普2.0:预期与现实的潜在落差

Group 1: Economic Outlook and Policy Implications - The U.S. economy showed a strong-to-weak trend in the first three quarters of 2024, leading to a decrease in U.S. Treasury yields after an initial rise[1] - The Federal Reserve initiated a rate cut cycle in September 2024, with a total reduction of 100 basis points (Bps) expected by December 2024[1] - Concerns over potential inflation risks from Trump's policies may limit the Fed's ability to cut rates further, causing a rise in 10-year Treasury yields[1] Group 2: Trump's Policy Impact - Trump's administration is expected to prioritize spending cuts and inflation control policies, potentially leading to lower-than-expected inflation pressures[4] - The market has already priced in the risks of re-inflation due to Trump's policies, which could lead to a significant rise in Treasury yields[5] - Trump's proposed tax cuts and tariffs could increase inflation, but other policies aimed at reducing government spending may counteract this effect[6] Group 3: Consumer and Employment Trends - U.S. GDP growth is projected to slow down in 2025, with consumer spending becoming increasingly reliant on wage income due to diminishing support from savings and government transfers[13] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise, with structural risks accumulating in the job market, particularly among small and medium-sized enterprises[17] - Consumer spending growth may face challenges as government transfer payments are likely to decrease under Trump's administration[16] Group 4: Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - The Fed's forecast for rate cuts in 2025 was reduced from 100 Bps to 50 Bps due to uncertainties surrounding Trump's policies[21] - If inflation pressures do not materialize as expected, the Fed may have more room to cut rates beyond the current forecast[23] - The potential for a return of the "Trump trade" could create upward pressure on Treasury yields later in 2025, depending on the economic landscape[33]