招财日报2025.1.9 美国经济/中国医药行业点评

Macro Strategy - The US services PMI accelerated expansion in December, driven by businesses preparing for tariffs, leading to a significant increase in commercial activity[1] - The price index rebounded to a new high since January 2024, potentially due to temporary year-end price fluctuations[2] - The manufacturing PMI continues to contract but shows signs of improvement, with production and demand both improving[1] Inflation Concerns - The surge in the services PMI price index has raised market concerns about inflation rebounding, leading to expectations that the Federal Reserve's rate cut space is narrowing[2] - The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.68%, the highest in nearly a year, putting pressure on US stocks and gold prices[2] - Inflation is expected to decline moderately in the first half of the year due to high year-on-year bases and falling used car and energy prices[2] Industry Insights - The MSCI China Healthcare Index has fallen by 4.7% since the beginning of 2025, underperforming the MSCI China Index by 0.9%[3] - The Chinese government is promoting high-quality development in the pharmaceutical industry, which is expected to benefit innovative drugs and medical devices[4] - The medical device bidding market saw a year-on-year growth of 37% in December, indicating a significant recovery in the sector[5]