宏观策略报告：浅谈地产政策的传导路径

Group 1: Real Estate Policy and Market Outlook - The real estate policy aims to stabilize prices and promote demand through inventory digestion, with a neutral expectation for recovery by Q4 2025[7] - As of December, the manufacturing PMI composite index is at 50.1%, reflecting a 0.2 percentage point month-on-month decline, indicating marginal improvement in the domestic economy[19] - Real estate investment remains low, with a 10% year-on-year decline in investment from January to September 2024, and a nearly 15% drop in commodity housing sales[8] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Conditions - The U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations, indicating a potential economic upturn, with new orders and inventory expanding[32] - The dollar index has risen by 0.8%, putting pressure on risk assets globally, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down by 1.6% and 2% respectively[36] - The central bank has indicated a clear stance on maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy, despite the absence of expected rate cuts by the end of 2024[22] Group 3: Investment Strategies and Risks - Investors are advised to maintain low positions in the stock market under low-risk preferences, while bond market dynamics may continue to evolve[37] - The key variable for real estate recovery is inventory digestion, which is expected to be supported by policy interventions[15] - Risks include potential underperformance of domestic policies and economic recovery, as well as unexpected trade and geopolitical shocks[5]