2025年加力扩围实施“两新”政策通知点评：两新加力扩围，推动内需增长

Policy Overview - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued a notice on January 8, 2025, regarding the implementation of large-scale equipment updates and the replacement of consumer goods[11] - The policy aims to stimulate domestic demand and investment growth, following the directives from the 20th Central Committee's third plenary session and the Central Economic Work Conference[2][12] Subsidy and Support Measures - The notice increases subsidies for large-scale equipment updates, raising the subsidy for urban buses and battery replacements from 60,000 yuan to 80,000 yuan per vehicle[14] - The funding scale for the "Two New" policy in 2025 is expected to be no less than 300 billion yuan, with a significant increase compared to previous years[15] Expansion of Support Scope - The policy expands the support scope to include electronic information, safety production, and facility agriculture, along with increasing the categories of consumer goods eligible for subsidies from 8 to 12[18] - New categories for consumer goods include microwaves, water purifiers, dishwashers, and rice cookers, with a 15% subsidy on the purchase price for eligible digital products[18] Economic Impact - Historical data indicates that equipment investment is a key driver for economic recovery, with equipment investment growth reaching 28.6% in 2008, significantly contributing to GDP growth[19] - In 2024, the contribution rate of domestic demand to GDP growth was 76.2%, with final consumption expenditure contributing 49.9%[19][20] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic downturns, and significant fluctuations in overseas markets[21]