Ping An Securities·2025-01-09 10:24Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports (2020.HK) is "Strong Buy" with an expectation that the stock will outperform the market by over 20% within the next six months [15]. Core Views - Anta's brand operations are stable, with FILA brand revenue exceeding expectations. The company is expected to achieve double-digit revenue growth in 2025, particularly in the children's segment [4][10]. - The overall retail performance for Anta and FILA brands showed high single-digit growth year-on-year in Q4 2024, with other brands experiencing a 50-55% increase [4][9]. - The report maintains a positive outlook on the company's growth in professional sports, fashion sports, and outdoor sports segments, benefiting from industry trends [10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Anta Sports is primarily engaged in the textile and apparel industry, with a total market capitalization of HKD 212.448 billion and a share price of HKD 75.25 [1]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for Anta Sports are as follows: - 2022A: 53,651 million - 2023A: 62,356 million (YoY growth of 16.2%) - 2024E: 71,329 million (YoY growth of 14.4%) - 2025E: 81,204 million (YoY growth of 13.8%) - 2026E: 91,805 million (YoY growth of 13.1%) [6][13]. - Net profit projections are: - 2022A: 7,590 million - 2023A: 10,236 million (YoY growth of 34.9%) - 2024E: 11,875 million (YoY growth of 16.0%) - 2025E: 13,801 million (YoY growth of 16.2%) - 2026E: 15,389 million (YoY growth of 11.5%) [6][13]. Brand Performance - Anta brand retail sales in Q4 2024 showed high single-digit growth, with a healthy inventory turnover of approximately five months [9]. - FILA brand retail sales also demonstrated high single-digit growth, with strong performance in FILA Kids and FILA's trendy products [9]. - Other brands, excluding those added after January 1, 2023, saw a revenue increase of 50-55%, with Descente and KOLON brands maintaining high growth rates [9]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that Anta's revenue will achieve double-digit growth in 2025, driven by improved store efficiency and strong e-commerce performance [10]. - FILA is expected to continue its growth trajectory, particularly in trendy and children's segments, with a projected mid to high single-digit revenue growth in 2025 [10]. - Other brands, especially Descente and KOLON, are expected to contribute significantly to overall profitability [10].