证券Ⅱ行业深度报告：“券商·二十年”复盘报告-谋时而动，顺势而为

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the securities industry [1]. Core Insights - The valuation of brokerage stocks is closely related to ROE, with a significant decline in ROE levels observed since the 2012 innovation conference, leading to lower PB valuation limits [4][32]. - The securities industry is expected to benefit from a growing capital market, with the market share of the top five firms (CR5) increasing from 24% in 2013 to 28% in 2023, indicating a trend towards higher industry concentration [4]. - Current valuations for the securities industry are considered reasonable and slightly undervalued, with the Shenyuan Securities II Index at 1.37x PB as of January 2, 2025, which is below historical averages [4]. Summary by Sections 1. High Correlation Between Brokerage Stocks and Market - Brokerage firms exhibit high beta characteristics, indicating strong correlation with market performance [12][21]. - Historical data shows that brokerage stocks have experienced significant absolute returns during major market rallies, outperforming the market index in several instances [12][16]. 2. Business Structure of Brokerages and Market Correlation - The business structure of brokerages is highly correlated with market conditions, with direct relationships observed in brokerage, margin financing, and proprietary trading businesses [41]. - The brokerage business has shifted from a commission-based model to a more diversified income structure, with proprietary trading and capital intermediary services gaining importance [42]. 3. Policy and Regulatory Factors - Regulatory policies significantly impact investor sentiment, with long-term supportive policies fostering growth in brokerage stocks, while regulatory tightening tends to have immediate but short-lived effects [4][41]. - Key historical events, such as the 2012 innovation conference and the 2014 Hong Kong Stock Connect, have had lasting positive impacts on the brokerage sector [4][41]. 4. Selected High-Elasticity Stocks - The report recommends focusing on leading brokerage firms such as CITIC Securities, Huatai Securities, China International Capital Corporation, and Dongfang Wealth due to their stable ROE and growth potential [4].