2024年12月通胀数据点评：2024年通胀答卷

Inflation Overview - In December 2024, the CPI increased by 0.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.1% from the previous month, marking the fifth consecutive month of decline since August 2024[4] - The CPI remained flat month-on-month at 0.0%, an increase of 0.6% from the previous month[4] - Food prices contributed significantly to the CPI decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.5% in December, compared to an increase of 1.0% in November[4] PPI Analysis - The PPI in December 2024 decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, a slight recovery of 0.2% from the previous month, and a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%[8] - The mining industry saw a year-on-year decline of 4.6%, while the raw materials and processing industries reported declines of 2.2% and 2.7%, respectively[8] - The divergence between high-frequency data and PPI readings may be attributed to time lags in the transmission of commodity prices to the enterprise level and sample selection biases in PPI calculations[8] Key Drivers for 2025 - The recovery of core CPI is crucial for exiting the "low-price" environment, with a focus on stabilizing the real estate market to boost consumer confidence and demand[6] - Domestic demand, particularly for coal as a representative of internal demand-driven goods, is essential for monitoring price trends[10] - The "copper-gold ratio" is highlighted as a significant indicator for industrial demand, with the ratio reaching 14.4 in December, indicating a continued downward trend[10] Policy Implications - The shift in policy focus towards stabilizing prices is seen as vital for maintaining expectations, growth, and employment[6] - The effectiveness of recent policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market will be critical in influencing core CPI and overall economic recovery[7] - The report emphasizes the need for ongoing monitoring of both domestic and industrial demand factors to assess future PPI trends[10]