典型房企2024年度业绩前瞻：业绩拐点未现，压力仍存

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - The market showed signs of recovery in Q4 2024, with a narrowing decline in housing prices. The total sales area of new commercial housing from January to November 2024 was 860 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 14.3%, while the sales amount was 8.5 trillion yuan, down 19.2% year-on-year. The sales area is expected to return to 2009 levels, and the sales amount to 2015-2016 levels [1][2] - The performance of selected leading real estate companies is expected to decline in 2024, with a significant reduction in net profit due to factors such as declining gross margins and increased asset impairments. The forecasted total revenue and net profit for four selected companies in 2024 are 627 billion yuan and 14.5 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year declines of 5.6% and 36.7% [3][8] Summary by Sections Market Tracking - In December, the overall transaction volume in 30 key cities reached 18.01 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 15% and a year-on-year increase of 17%, marking the highest level for the same period in three years. The sales area in November was 8.2 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 7.1% and a year-on-year increase of 3.3% [2] Performance Outlook - The four selected real estate companies are expected to see a significant decline in performance in 2024, with total revenue and net profit for Q1-Q3 2024 at 333.1 billion yuan and 13.3 billion yuan, respectively, showing year-on-year declines of 8.0% and 39.5% [4] - The gross margin for these companies is projected to decrease from 16.3% in 2023 to around 13% in 2024 due to high land acquisition costs and ongoing market downturns [6] Impairment and Equity - The impairment losses for the selected companies are expected to remain significant, with a forecast of approximately 10.8 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting ongoing challenges in the market [7] - The proportion of minority shareholders' equity is anticipated to rise slightly to 34% in 2024, compared to 2023 [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main areas for investment in the real estate sector: consumption combined with real estate, leading intermediaries, and top-performing companies. Specific companies to watch include: JinDi Group, New Town Holdings, Longfor Group, Beike-W, Wo Ai Wo Jia, Poly Developments, and China Overseas Development [9]