东海证券：晨会纪要-20250110

Group 1: Key Recommendations - The air conditioning long-term contract orders have landed, boosting refrigerants in the fluorochemical industry. The prices of refrigerants R32, R125, and R134a increased by 7.50%, 10.53%, and 8.97% respectively compared to the end of November 2024, with R22 rising by 3.13% [8][9] - The cash ex-factory prices for long-term contracts of major air conditioning manufacturers in Q1 2025 are expected to rise, with R32 at 39,800 yuan/ton (up 6.13%) and R410 at 40,800 yuan/ton (up 11.78%). The refrigerant market is likely to maintain a positive trend in the short term [9][10] - The demand for refrigerants remains strong, supported by high production levels of household air conditioners and refrigerators, with production expected to increase significantly in February 2025 [9][10] Group 2: Investment Suggestions - The reduction of second-generation refrigerant quotas and the maintenance of third-generation refrigerant production quotas at baseline levels indicate a tightening supply-demand relationship. The profitability of leading refrigerant production companies is expected to improve significantly [10] - It is recommended to focus on leading companies in the refrigerant industry and those with a complete industrial chain, such as Juhua Co., Ltd., Sanmei Co., Ltd., and Jinshi Resources [10] Group 3: Non-Banking Financial Industry Insights - The non-banking index fell by 9.9%, with brokerages and insurance indices dropping by 11.33% and 6.37% respectively. The market data showed a decrease in average daily trading volume and margin financing balance [11][12] - Recent measures by the central bank, including the expansion of swap operations and adjustments to stock repurchase policies, are expected to improve market liquidity and investor sentiment [13][14] Group 4: Economic Policies and Market Data - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued a notice to support large-scale equipment updates and the replacement of consumer goods, which is expected to boost investment in related sectors [17][18] - The market performance on January 8, 2025, showed a slight increase in the Shanghai Composite Index, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices declined. The overall market sentiment remains cautious with mixed signals [24][26]