2025年医药生物行业投资策略报告：看好创新和出海，关注基本面向上细分赛道

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the healthcare sector, with a focus on innovation and overseas expansion [1] Core Views - The healthcare sector is at a triple bottom in terms of performance, valuation, and fund allocation, with 2023 performance significantly impacted by anti-corruption measures [3] - The payment side of the healthcare industry is expected to gradually improve, driven by the development of commercial health insurance [3] - Pharmaceutical innovation and overseas expansion are key growth areas, with companies strong in product and channel capabilities likely to gain a competitive edge [3] - Opportunities in mergers and acquisitions (M&A), centralized procurement clearance, and undervalued stocks are highlighted [3] Pharmaceutical Innovation - China's pharmaceutical innovation has entered a phase of commercialization, with significant progress in areas such as ADC, GLP-1, bispecific antibodies, and AD [4] - Domestic innovation drugs are increasingly being authorized and approved for overseas markets, showcasing the rapid improvement in innovation capabilities [4] - Companies with advanced R&D progress in large therapeutic areas are expected to perform well in 2025 [4] Overseas Expansion - Overseas expansion is a critical step for Chinese pharmaceutical companies to become global players, with developed markets offering higher prices and emerging markets providing growth potential [5] - Companies with strong product capabilities and channel management are expected to lead in overseas markets [5] M&A and Centralized Procurement - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has issued policies to encourage M&A, which is expected to accelerate industry consolidation [8] - Centralized procurement has been implemented in various sectors, with some areas already seeing the impact of price reductions, such as insulin and orthopedic products [8] - Undervalued sectors with improving fundamentals are expected to benefit from events like the National Essential Drug List and state-owned enterprise reforms [8] Sector Performance and Valuation - The healthcare sector underperformed the CSI 300 index in 2024, with chemical drugs and traditional Chinese medicine outperforming other sub-sectors [14][16] - The sector's valuation remains at historically low levels, with a slight rebound in the fourth quarter of 2024 [17][23] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of the healthcare sector is at its lowest in 15 years, around 25 times [26] Industry Fundamentals - The healthcare sector's revenue growth stabilized in 2024, with a year-on-year decline of 0.07% in the first three quarters, while net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 7.28% [27] - Fund allocation to the healthcare sector is at a five-year low, with only 10.17% of the total market fund allocation [31] Payment Side Improvement - The balance rate of China's urban employee medical insurance fund has been declining, reaching 16.91% in the first ten months of 2024 [36] - Policies encouraging commercial health insurance are expected to alleviate payment pressure, with commercial health insurance premiums reaching 900 billion yuan in 2023 [45] Innovation Drug Development - China has become the second-largest country globally in terms of core clinical trials for innovative drugs, with 322 trials conducted in 2022 [72] - The proportion of domestic innovative drugs in the market is expected to increase significantly, with a projected share of 47.13% by 2025 and 57.55% by 2030 [65] Overseas Market Potential - The global pharmaceutical market is projected to grow to $20.9 trillion by 2030, with China's market expected to reach $3.9 trillion, maintaining a 17% share of the global market [99] - Overseas markets, particularly in developed countries, offer higher drug prices, with China's drug prices being only about 10% of those in the US [103] M&A Opportunities - The healthcare sector is expected to see increased M&A activity, with policies encouraging industry consolidation and the acquisition of high-quality assets [121] - A notable example is China Biologic Products' acquisition of a majority stake in Hybio Pharmaceutical, which has led to a significant increase in Hybio's stock price [123] Centralized Procurement Impact - Centralized procurement has led to significant price reductions in sectors such as blood dialysis and insulin, with some products seeing price drops of up to 74% [127][135] - The impact of centralized procurement is gradually being absorbed, with sectors like orthopedics expected to enter a new growth phase [136]