ANTA SPORTS(02020) 国金证券·2025-01-10 00:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for the company [1][4] Core Views - The company's Q4 2024 performance showed steady growth, with Anta's main brand and FILA recording high single-digit growth, while other brands surged by 50%-55% YoY [1] - For the full year 2024, Anta's main brand grew by high single digits, FILA by mid-single digits, and other brands by 40%-45% YoY, demonstrating resilience in a challenging consumer environment [1][4] - FILA's performance exceeded market expectations, with a rapid turnaround in Q4, indicating strong brand adjustment effectiveness [2] - The company's multi-brand strategy continues to drive growth, with Descente and Kolon expected to surpass RMB 10 billion in sales in 2024, solidifying their leadership in the professional sports and outdoor sectors [2] Business Analysis Anta Main Brand - The brand achieved high single-digit growth in Q4, driven by multi-channel strategies and effective discount management [2] - Anta Kids also saw low double-digit growth, supported by its online and offline coverage of children's sports communities [2] - Inventory and channel health remained strong, with optimized online discounts and healthy inventory-to-sales ratios [2] FILA - FILA's Q4 performance was better than expected, with high single-digit growth in its mainline products and significant improvement in its fashion and kids' segments [2] - The brand's inventory-to-sales ratio remained healthy, and discounts were stable YoY, reflecting strong product appeal [2] Other Brands - Descente and Kolon recorded 50%-55% YoY growth in Q4, maintaining strong momentum despite a high base [2] - These brands are expected to continue capturing market share in the high-growth professional sports and outdoor sectors [2] Outlook for 2025 - The company expects double-digit growth for both Anta's main brand and FILA in 2025, driven by new business models and international expansion [3] - The Super Anta stores, which cater to the trend of consumption downgrading, are expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth [3] - The company is expanding its presence in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Europe, with retail stores already established in the US and Europe, and partnerships with cross-border e-commerce platforms [3] Financial Projections and Valuation - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is projected at RMB 4.70, RMB 4.89, and RMB 5.66, respectively, with P/E ratios of 15x, 14x, and 12x [4] - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 62.356 billion in 2023 to RMB 83.904 billion in 2026, with a 10.08% YoY growth rate in 2026 [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase from RMB 10.236 billion in 2023 to RMB 15.967 billion in 2026 [7] Market Sentiment - Market sentiment is overwhelmingly positive, with 82 Buy ratings in the past six months and a consistent 1.00 score, indicating strong market confidence in the company's prospects [11][12]