山西证券：研究早观点-20250110

Market Overview - The report indicates that the core CPI improved in December 2024, driven by the effects of stable growth policies and ongoing consumer promotions. However, the month-on-month increase in core CPI did not significantly exceed seasonal trends [7][10] - The December CPI year-on-year was 0.1%, slightly down from 0.2% in the previous month, while the PPI year-on-year was -2.3%, an improvement from -2.5% [7][10] - Food prices continued to be a major drag on overall CPI, with food items showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.6%, significantly lower than seasonal expectations [7][10] Industry Insights - In the photovoltaic (PV) industry, prices for polysilicon remained stable, while prices for silicon wafers, battery cells, and modules showed an upward trend. The average price for dense polysilicon was 39.0 CNY/kg, unchanged from the previous period [12] - The average price for 182mm monocrystalline silicon wafers was 1.15 CNY/piece, remaining stable, while the price for 183mm N-type wafers increased by 12.4% to 1.18 CNY/piece [12] - Battery cell prices also saw increases, with M10 cells priced at 0.3 CNY/W, up 9.1%, and 210mm cells at 0.280 CNY/W, up 7.1% [12] - The report highlights that the PV industry is expected to see a slight price increase in the short term due to the initiation of industry self-discipline measures and a reduction in production [12][14] Policy and Economic Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting in December emphasized the need for more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies to boost consumption and expand domestic demand in 2025 [10] - The People's Bank of China conducted significant operations in December, including a 14 billion CNY reverse repurchase operation, indicating a strong liquidity provision [10] - The report suggests that long-term bonds may have further downward potential, and a duration strategy could be effective in the current market environment [10]