通信TMT行业月报：交换机市场需求加速；DeepSeek-V3大模型开源加速AI向低成本发展

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the communication industry is "Outperform the Market" [1]. Core Insights - The communication sector saw a significant increase of 4.39% in December 2024, while the overall market (CSI 300 Index) rose by only 0.47%. This indicates strong performance relative to other sectors [3][9]. - The demand for high-speed switches is accelerating due to the rapid development of AI technologies, with the data center switch market revenue growing by 18.0% year-on-year in Q3 2024. The revenue for 200/400 Gb switches surged by 126.3% year-on-year [5][25]. - The DeepSeek-V3 model, launched in December 2024, demonstrates significant advancements in AI capabilities while drastically reducing training costs, which could lead to a paradigm shift in AI model development [34][39]. Summary by Sections Communication Industry - In November 2024, the domestic telecom business volume was 141.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.85%. However, the cumulative telecom business revenue for the first 11 months reached 1,594.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.6% [14]. - The average mobile internet access traffic per user reached 19.11 GB/month in November 2024, up 5.9% year-on-year, with total mobile internet traffic for the first 11 months amounting to 3,066 billion GB, a 12% increase [14][15]. - As of November 2024, the total number of 5G base stations in China reached 4.191 million, accounting for 33.2% of all mobile base stations, an increase of 4.1 percentage points from the previous year [16]. Ethernet Switch Market - The Ethernet switch market in China reached approximately 68.5 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 15.9%. The market is expected to continue growing due to increasing demand for efficient and reliable network connections driven by cloud computing and big data [18][21]. - In Q3 2024, the revenue from data center Ethernet switches grew by 18.0% year-on-year, with a notable increase in the revenue of 200/400 Gb switches [25][26]. - The global Ethernet switch market in Q3 2024 was valued at 10.8 billion USD, with Cisco holding a 37% market share, followed by Arista Networks at 13.6% and Huawei at 9.7% [26][31]. Computer Industry - In November 2024, the domestic software industry revenue was 1,228 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase of 0.2%, while profits in the software sector decreased by 8.84% to 146.5 billion yuan [28]. - The revenue from cloud computing and big data services reached 135.3 billion yuan in November, marking a year-on-year growth of 3.68%, while revenue from e-commerce platform technology services fell by 7.27% to 110.9 billion yuan [32]. DeepSeek-V3 Model - The DeepSeek-V3 model, with 671 billion parameters, has shown superior performance compared to other open-source models and is competitive with leading closed-source models like GPT-4o. Its training cost was significantly lower, at 5.576 million USD, compared to approximately 100 million USD for GPT-4o [34][39]. - The model's advancements in various areas, including knowledge, long text, code, and mathematics, indicate a potential shift towards more accessible AI models, which could lower overall development costs in the industry [40].