宏观点评：货币政策：合理理解“适度宽松”的“度”

Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference in December 2024 proposed a "moderately loose" monetary policy, leading to a rapid decline in market interest rates, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping from 2.0% to approximately 1.60%, a decrease of 40bps[1] - The rapid decline in interest rates suggests a one-sided understanding of "moderately loose" monetary policy, indicating that the policy also has a "degree" that includes timely rate cuts and various tools to support liquidity[2] - "Moderately loose" implies that interest rates should be appropriate and dynamically match the economic situation, maintaining a reasonable money supply and low interest rates to support economic recovery without leading to excessive liquidity or zero interest rates[4] Group 2: Economic Context and Risks - The actual economic growth rate is expected to maintain around 5.0% from 2024 to 2025, where appropriate and moderate rate cuts can stimulate market financing demand and economic activity[8] - If interest rates are set too low, it may lead to resource misallocation and financial instability, undermining economic growth prospects[10] - Risks include uncertainties surrounding the new U.S. administration's policies, unclear paths for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, and potential impacts on the eurozone economy and inflation due to tariff risks in 2025[20]