中国耐用消费品：国家发改委和财政部发布2025年加力扩围实施消费品以旧换新政策

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies in the durable consumer goods sector, including Midea, Haier, Gree, Hisense, and Supor [4][11][14][16][19]. Core Insights - The newly announced policies for the "old-for-new" appliance replacement program are expected to positively impact consumer demand for home appliances, with investors likely to welcome these specific measures [3]. - The expansion of the subsidy program includes an increase in the number of appliance categories eligible for subsidies, from 8 to 12, and allows consumers to claim subsidies for up to three air conditioning units instead of one, potentially increasing the attractiveness of central air conditioning products [1][2][3]. - The report anticipates that the 2025 "old-for-new" program will be implemented smoothly, contrary to previous expectations of potential interruptions [3]. Summary by Sections Policy Changes - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance announced the expansion of the "old-for-new" appliance replacement policy, adding new categories such as microwaves, water purifiers, dishwashers, and rice cookers [1]. - The maximum subsidy for air conditioning units can reach RMB 6,000, with a subsidy of RMB 2,000 per unit for energy-efficient products [1][2]. Company-Specific Insights - Midea Group is positioned as a leading player in the HVAC and major appliance markets, with a target price of RMB 87 based on a 16x exit valuation multiple [9][10]. - Hisense is expected to benefit from structural growth in its VRF business, with a target price of RMB 31 based on a 16x expected P/E ratio [11][12]. - Haier is projected to maintain robust growth due to market share gains and product premiumization, with a target price of RMB 33 based on a 15x exit P/E ratio [14]. - Gree Electric is noted for its attractive risk-reward profile, with a target price of RMB 50 based on a 10x exit P/E ratio [16]. - Supor is expected to see revenue growth driven by its expansion into new product categories, with a target price of RMB 62 based on a 22x expected P/E ratio [19].