涤纶长丝行业深度：供需预期再纠偏，周期弹性被低估

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - The polyester filament industry is experiencing a supply-side contraction, with the introduction of a "one-price model" sparking market debate. The report analyzes the industry's self-discipline attempts and historical profit performances across three cycles [5]. - The supply-demand balance is expected to improve, with a long-term positive outlook for filament production. The industry has seen a significant slowdown in capacity growth, with a projected CAGR of 1.5% from 2024 to 2026, down from 7.1% from 2017 to 2023 [7][34]. - The report highlights the underestimation of cyclical elasticity in the filament industry, with historical data showing significant excess returns during previous cycles [8][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Polyester Industry Chain - Polyester filament is a major synthetic fiber in China, with a production volume of approximately 45.09 million tons in 2023, accounting for 65.6% of total chemical fiber production [15]. 2. Supply-Demand Dynamics - The high-speed capacity expansion phase has ended, leading to increased industry concentration. The CR6 of the industry rose from 48% in 2018 to 66% in 2023, indicating a more optimized market structure [27][40]. - Domestic textile and apparel sectors are recovering, with industrial output value for textiles increasing by 5.1% year-on-year from January to November 2024 [45]. - The report anticipates a supply-demand gap of 230,000 tons in 2024, 290,000 tons in 2025, and 740,000 tons in 2026, suggesting a long-term favorable market outlook [30]. 3. Cyclical Elasticity - Historical performance indicates that the filament industry has shown significant profit elasticity, with major companies like Tongkun and Xinfengming positioned to benefit from the current cycle [8][21]. 4. Industry Targets - Key companies mentioned include Tongkun, Xinfengming, Hengyi Petrochemical, Hengli Petrochemical, and Rongsheng Petrochemical, which are expected to lead the market in the coming years [9].