2024年新能源汽车渗透率47.6%，新一轮国补有望带动车市消费

Industry Rating - The automotive industry is rated as "Leading" with expectations of attractive performance relative to the benchmark index over the next 12 months [1][15]. Core Insights - In 2024, the retail sales of passenger vehicles are projected to grow by 5.5%, with December showing a year-on-year increase of 12.0%. The total retail sales for 2024 are expected to reach 22.894 million units [4]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) is anticipated to reach 47.6% in 2024, with a significant year-on-year growth of 40.7% in NEV retail sales [4]. - A new round of subsidies for vehicle replacement is expected to further stimulate market consumption, with NEV penetration projected to increase to 60% by 2025 [4]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating Overview - Companies such as CATL, BYD, and Li Auto are rated as "Buy" with target prices significantly above current prices, indicating strong potential for growth [2][13]. Sales and Market Trends - December 2024 saw retail sales of 2.635 million passenger vehicles, with domestic brands maintaining a strong growth momentum, capturing 62.3% of the market share [4]. - NEV retail sales in December reached 1.302 million units, with a penetration rate of 49.4%, marking a 9.1 percentage point increase from the previous year [4]. Export Performance - Passenger vehicle exports are expected to grow by 25% year-on-year in 2024, with December exports totaling 404,000 units [4].