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Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [4]. Core Insights - The oil transportation market is expected to experience a recovery in cargo volumes due to stricter sanctions on shadow fleets, which will help reduce effective shipping capacity [3]. - Despite a downturn in the oil transportation market in the second half of 2024, demand is anticipated to grow due to resilient traditional energy needs and increased crude oil production [4]. - The report highlights that the tightening of sanctions on shadow fleets, particularly those involved in Iranian oil exports, is likely to compress operational space for non-compliant vessels, thereby benefiting compliant market cargo recovery [3]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Event - Domestic ports are reportedly planning to strengthen management of vessels involved in U.S. sanctions, potentially prohibiting them from docking and providing services [1]. - Approximately 274 oil tankers are currently on the U.S. Treasury's OFAC sanctions list, with 201 being crude oil tankers, representing about 6% of the global crude oil tanker fleet [1]. Section 2: Background - The oil transportation industry faced a pressure test in the second half of 2024, with Iranian oil exports increasing, leading to a diversion of compliant market cargo to shadow fleets [2]. - Economic fluctuations have weakened crude oil demand, while geopolitical conflicts have caused slow declines in oil prices, impacting refinery profitability and operational rates [2]. Section 3: Impact - The U.S. has intensified sanctions on shadow fleets, which has led to a reduction in Iranian oil exports in recent weeks due to concerns over potential further sanctions [3]. - The report suggests that the tightening of sanctions will lead to a decrease in the operational efficiency of older tankers, facilitating a recovery in compliant market cargo and a reduction in effective shipping capacity [3]. Section 4: Future Outlook - The oil transportation supply-demand balance is expected to improve, with a rigid supply continuing and sanctions likely to further reduce effective capacity [4]. - The report anticipates that traditional energy demand will remain resilient, and an increase in crude oil production from OPEC+, South America, and North America will drive growth in oil trade [4].