安踏体育：FILA重回增长轨道，期待新一年更好表现

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports with a 6-month target price of HKD 103.8 [6][10] Core Views - Anta Sports' main brand achieved high single-digit growth in Q4 2024, with children's products growing at low double digits and e-commerce growing nearly 20% [7] - FILA returned to growth in Q4 2024, with high single-digit growth in main products, mid single-digit growth in children's products, and high double-digit growth in Fusion products [7] - Other brands, including Descente and Kolon, grew 45-50% and 60-65% respectively in Q4 2024, maintaining a high growth rate [7] - Anta Sports' new store formats, such as ANTA SNEAKERVERSE and Super Anta, have been successful in targeting different consumer segments [8] - The company is expected to benefit from industry development as a leading player in China's sports goods industry [8] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 53.65 billion in 2022 to RMB 84.06 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 9.2% [9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to increase from RMB 7.59 billion in 2022 to RMB 15.07 billion in 2026 [9] - Gross margin is projected to improve from 60.2% in 2022 to 63.3% in 2026 [9] - EPS is expected to grow from RMB 2.82 in 2022 to RMB 5.43 in 2026 [9] - ROE is forecasted to remain stable at around 20% from 2023 to 2026 [15] Operational Highlights - Inventory turnover days improved from 138 days in 2022 to 122.8 days in 2023 and are expected to remain at 123 days from 2024 to 2026 [15] - Accounts receivable days decreased from 50.4 days in 2022 to 46.5 days in 2023 and are expected to stabilize at 50 days from 2024 to 2026 [15] - The company's capital structure is improving, with the debt-to-capital ratio decreasing from 45.3% in 2022 to a projected 31.3% in 2026 [15] Market Performance - The stock price was HKD 78.6 as of January 9, 2025, with a total market capitalization of HKD 221.9 billion [10] - The 12-month trading range was between HKD 74.2 and HKD 80.1 [10] - The stock showed a 14.61% absolute return over the past 12 months, despite a 4.24% relative underperformance [12]