轻工制造行业2025年度策略：周期顺势，向新而行

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the light industry manufacturing sector [1] Core Insights - The light industry manufacturing sector is expected to see a cyclical recovery in 2025, particularly in the home furnishings and paper industries, driven by new consumption momentum and supportive domestic consumption policies [3][24] - The sector underperformed the CSI 300 index in 2024, with a decline of 6% compared to the index's increase of 14.8% [3][7] - The report highlights the importance of focusing on consumer staples and emerging consumption trends, recommending investments in entertainment products, new tobacco, packaging, and cross-border exports [3][24] Summary by Sections 2024 Annual Review - The light industry manufacturing sector saw a decline of 6% in 2024, with paper (-0.6%) being the least affected, while home furnishings (-8.3%) and packaging (-9.5%) faced significant challenges due to weak consumer demand and real estate downturns [7][10] - The report notes that external sales outperformed internal sales, with packaging showing relative stability [18] 2025 Outlook: Consumption Recovery and Upward Cycle - Home Furnishings: The sector is at a four-year cycle bottom, with expectations of demand recovery supported by government subsidies and improved real estate sales [3][24] - Paper: Marginal improvements in supply and demand are anticipated, with profitability expected to recover as cost pressures ease [3][24] - Light Industry Consumption: The rise of domestic brands and emotional consumption trends are highlighted, with recommendations for companies like Dengkang Oral Care and Baia Shares [3][24] - New Tobacco: Positive regulatory developments in electronic cigarettes and heated tobacco products are expected to boost market conditions [3][24] - Packaging: The report emphasizes consolidation in metal packaging and the recovery of paper packaging driven by consumer electronics [3][24] - Export Chain: Focus on profitability and recovery in the U.S. real estate market is recommended [3][24] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the home furnishings sector, such as Oppein Home, Sophia, and Zhijia Home, as well as in the paper sector, including Sun Paper and Nine Dragons Paper [3][24] - It also highlights the potential of companies involved in new tobacco and packaging sectors, recommending firms like Smoore International and Aoyuan Technology [3][24]