宏观周报：“两新”政策加力扩围，特朗普关税风声渐起

Domestic Developments - The People's Bank of China proposed a moderately loose monetary policy, indicating potential reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and interest rate cuts to release liquidity as needed[7] - The Caixin Services PMI for December 2024 rose to 52.2%, the highest since June 2024, reflecting a recovery in domestic service sector activity driven by holiday demand and policy support[9] - The State Council issued guidelines to promote high-quality development of government investment funds, proposing 25 specific measures to support key industries and new production capabilities[11] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance announced an expansion of the "Two New" policies, optimizing equipment updates and trade-in programs, which are expected to boost investment and consumption in sectors like electronics and home appliances[13][15] International Developments - The U.S. ISM Services PMI for December 2024 was reported at 54.1%, exceeding expectations and indicating continued expansion in the service sector for six consecutive months[20] - Eurozone inflation rebounded in December 2024, with the harmonized CPI rising to 2.4% year-on-year, prompting speculation that the European Central Bank may maintain its rate-cutting stance despite the inflation increase[22] - Japan's central bank hinted at potential interest rate hikes if economic conditions continue to improve, with the market closely watching upcoming labor negotiations in spring 2025[18][19] High-Frequency Data - Brent crude oil prices increased by 2.80% week-on-week, while iron ore prices fell by 2.65%[24] - The price index for thermal coal rose by 0.29%, while rebar and cement prices decreased by 1.38% and 1.18%, respectively[29]