Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank has decided to pause the purchase of government bonds to stabilize interest rates and exchange rates due to steep declines in long-term bond yields and increasing depreciation pressure on the CNY[6] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to lower the 7-day reverse repo rate by approximately 40 basis points to stimulate new debt financing demand[10] - A significant reduction in the loan balance and social financing stock is anticipated, with year-on-year decreases of 2.0 and 1.1 percentage points, respectively, by the end of 2025[10] Economic Outlook - The acceleration of debt replacement and the early timing of the Spring Festival may lead to a faster cooling of medium- and long-term loans for enterprises around the holiday period[2] - Despite a slowdown in RMB loans, the issuance of 2 trillion yuan in replacement bonds is expected to provide some support, resulting in a smaller decline compared to credit[2] - The forecast for loan balance growth is 5.2% and for social financing stock is 6.6% by the end of 2025, indicating a continued downward trend[10] Risk Factors - There is a risk that the monetary easing may be less aggressive than anticipated, which could impact the overall economic recovery[3]
华金宏观·双循环周报(第90期):央行暂停买债,降准概率提升
Huajin Securities·2025-01-10 14:23