中东观察：叙利亚问题如何撬动域外大国利益置换

Group 1: Geopolitical Dynamics - Syria has been divided into three main regions since the civil war began in 2011, each supported by a major power: the Assad government in the west backed by Iran and Russia, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the north and northeast supported by the U.S., and the northwest controlled by Turkish-backed opposition groups[1] - The complex situation in Syria is influenced by three main factors: its strategic location as a conduit for Iranian support to regional proxies, its role as a base for ISIS, and Turkey's concerns over Kurdish autonomy linked to the PKK[1] - The recent escalation of conflict in December 2024 was attributed to Hezbollah and Iran's overextension due to their conflict with Israel, allowing opposition forces to counterattack[2] Group 2: New Government Challenges - The new government formed by the opposition aims to unify various armed factions and gain international recognition, with a focus on combating ISIS to secure Western support[3] - The new government faces significant challenges in managing relations with Kurdish forces, U.S. military presence, and Russian military bases, which could complicate its authority and governance[3] - Economic reconstruction is critical for the new government, which relies on U.S. and Turkish support to revive key industries like oil and agriculture, which accounted for 35% and 22% of total exports respectively before the war[3]