基础化工行业周报：美制裁升级或加剧船运市场紧缺，石油供给短期风险显著上升

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Synchronize with the market - A" for the basic chemical industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The recent escalation of U.S. sanctions against Russia is expected to significantly restrict Russian crude oil export capabilities, impacting countries like China that rely on Russian oil imports. This may lead to a sharp increase in import costs for crude oil and petrochemical products, putting operational pressure on related companies. Additionally, the shipping market is likely to face tighter conditions, potentially leading to a supply-demand imbalance in shipping capacity and further increasing transportation costs [8][7][4]. Summary by Sections Chemical Market - The U.S. Treasury announced a new round of severe sanctions against Russia, covering nearly 230 entities and individuals, as well as 183 vessels, particularly targeting the Russian oil industry. This action is expected to exacerbate the economic tensions between China and the U.S. and Russia [7]. - The sanctions are projected to severely limit Russian oil exports, impacting countries dependent on these imports, and may lead to increased costs for crude oil and petrochemical products [8][6]. Petrochemical Sector - The macroeconomic environment and winter storms are providing support for oil prices, which are experiencing fluctuations. China's December Caixin PMI indicates continued expansion, while the government plans to issue long-term special bonds to stimulate the economy. Concerns about supply tightening due to sanctions on Russia and Iran are also influencing market sentiment [20][3]. - The refining profit this week is reported at 444.6 CNY/ton, a year-on-year increase of 13%. Meanwhile, domestic LNG prices are under pressure, with a weekly average price of 4458 CNY/ton, down 0.96% from the previous week [20][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend state-owned enterprises in the context of declining 10-year treasury yields. It also recommends attention to the fluorochemical industry, which is expected to see sustained improvement due to supply constraints. The oil and gas sector is highlighted as a focus area due to the short-term risks associated with oil supply [4][26]. - Key companies recommended include: Juhua Co., Ltd., Sanmei Co., Ltd., Sinochem Fertilizer, CGN Mining, China Petroleum, Haohua Technology, and Luxi Chemical [4][26].