巴基斯坦贫困地图20192020（英）

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry [1][2][3] Core Views - The report focuses on estimating poverty levels across 126 districts in Pakistan using a small area estimation (SAE) methodology, which combines data from the Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) 2018-19 and the Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement (PSLM) 2019-20 [3][7][8] - The SAE methodology used in this report differs from standard implementations by using a household survey (PSLM) as the target dataset instead of census data, which provides additional information for modeling but introduces additional uncertainty due to sampling [9][10] - The report highlights significant spatial disparities in poverty rates across districts, with the highest poverty rates found in Sindh and Balochistan provinces, while the lowest rates are concentrated in urban areas such as Karachi, Lahore, and Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT) [75][76] Methodology - The SAE methodology employed in the report uses the Census Empirical Best (EB) estimator, which is an advanced version of the ELL method, to estimate poverty rates at the district level [14][15][16] - The methodology involves fitting a linear model to predict welfare (consumption) based on household characteristics and then using this model to estimate consumption in the target dataset (PSLM) [17][18][19] - The report uses a Monte Carlo simulation approach to generate multiple welfare vectors and calculate poverty rates, with adjustments made to account for measurement errors in household size [20][21][22] Data Sources - The primary data sources for the report are the HIES 2018-19 and PSLM 2019-20 surveys, which provide detailed consumption and household characteristic data at the provincial and district levels, respectively [24][27][28] - The HIES 2018-19 survey covers 24,809 households across Pakistan, while the PSLM 2019-20 survey includes 170,246 households, allowing for more precise district-level poverty estimates [27][28] - The report notes that the PSLM 2019-20 survey was conducted using Computer-Assisted Personal Interviewing (CAPI) technology for the first time, which improved data collection efficiency [30] Key Findings - The report identifies significant spatial disparities in poverty rates across Pakistan, with the highest poverty rates in Sindh and Balochistan provinces and the lowest rates in urban areas such as Karachi, Lahore, and ICT [75][76] - The poverty gap analysis shows that in 69 districts, a relatively small increase in welfare could significantly reduce poverty, as the poverty gap (FGT1) is less than 5% [80][81] - The report also highlights the spatial clustering of poverty, with high-poverty clusters in southern KP and northern Balochistan and low-poverty clusters in the fertile plains of Punjab [87][88] Provincial Results - In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), the poverty map includes former Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Frontier Regions (FR) for the first time, with South Waziristan, Mohmand, and Tank districts showing the highest poverty rates [95][96] - Punjab has the lowest poverty rates among the provinces, with the highest poverty rates concentrated in the southwestern districts of Rajanpur, Dera Ghazi Khan, Rahim Yar Khan, and Muzaffargarh [97][98] - Sindh has the highest poverty rates in its southern districts, particularly Tharparkar, which has a poverty rate of 76.9% and a high poverty gap of 19% [99][101] - Balochistan exhibits the highest variability in poverty rates and gaps, with districts like Kech, Zhob, and Sheikh Saedullah (Surab) having both high poverty rates and large poverty gaps [102][103]