煤炭行业周报：看好一季度需求增长，红利价值仍可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "A" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the first quarter of 2025 [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights an expected growth in demand during the first quarter, driven by economic stabilization policies and increased heating demand [1][2]. - Coal prices are stabilizing, with a balance between supply and demand, particularly in the thermal coal segment [2][3]. - The metallurgical coal market is experiencing weak price fluctuations due to seasonal impacts and reduced demand from steel production [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Coal Industry Dynamic Data Tracking - Thermal Coal: The market is balanced with stable prices; as of January 10, 2025, the spot price for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim was 774 RMB/ton, with a weekly change of +0.39% [2][19]. - Metallurgical Coal: Prices remain weak due to seasonal demand decline; the main coking coal price at Jingtang Port was 1,520 RMB/ton, unchanged from the previous week [3][34]. - Coking Steel Chain: Both supply and demand are weak, leading to lower prices; the average price for first-grade metallurgical coke was 1,730 RMB/ton, down 2.81% week-on-week [4][47]. 2. Coal Transportation - The coastal coal transportation market is experiencing a decline in freight rates due to oversupply and reduced demand; as of January 10, the coastal coal transportation index was 517.48 points, down 17.09% [6][59]. 3. Coal Sector Market Review - The coal sector has seen a continued decline, with the CITIC coal index closing at 3,401.76 points, down 5.15% for the week [7][64]. - Sub-sectors such as coal mining and chemical coal also experienced declines, with respective changes of -5.40% and -2.29% [7][64]. 4. Industry News Summary - The report notes that the coal supply is expected to enter a phase of contraction, alleviating some market pressures; this is due to proactive production control by major state-owned mines [70]. - The report also mentions the successful signing of long-term coal contracts in Anhui Province, which is expected to secure energy supply for the year [70].