电网2025年度策略：冬寒料峭处，春暖处处生

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The core viewpoint emphasizes the sustained prosperity of domestic core grid indicators in 2024, with significant growth in investment and exports in the power equipment sector [3][4] - The report highlights the acceleration of digital investment in distribution networks and the ongoing high demand for transformer and distribution equipment in overseas markets [3][4] Domestic Analysis - In 2024, domestic grid engineering investment reached a cumulative total of 529 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 19% [3] - The State Grid and Southern Grid's investment guidance for 2024 is set at 609.2 billion yuan and 173 billion yuan, respectively, indicating a high growth rate [3][12] - The report notes that the construction of ultra-high voltage (UHV) projects is entering a valuation reshaping phase, with expectations for accelerated digital investment in distribution networks [3][4] Export Analysis - The report indicates that the construction of power grids in Europe and the United States remains robust, driven by aging infrastructure and increased demand for renewable energy integration [3][4] - In 2024, U.S. grid and energy storage investments are projected to reach approximately 124 billion USD, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 11% from 2019 to 2024 [3] - European grid investments are expected to reach around 100 billion USD in 2024, with a CAGR of approximately 12% during the same period [3] Investment Recommendations - For domestic investments, the report suggests focusing on leading UHV manufacturers such as XJ Electric, Pinggao Electric, and China XD Electric, as well as companies involved in digital distribution networks like Sifang Co., Guodian NARI, and State Grid Information & Communication [3][5] - For overseas investments, it recommends companies with strong positions in the main grid platform, such as Sifang Electric and Huaming Equipment, and transformer manufacturers with export capabilities like Jinpan Technology and Igor [3][5] Market Performance - The report notes that the ultra-high voltage and overseas sectors have shown significant gains in the first half of the year, with core stocks in the power equipment sector achieving positive returns [6][8]